The Latest: April - 2026
The Short Squeeze Continues
The short squeeze continues. Someone – or several someones – desperately need milk powder and they need it now. USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that prices are high enough that most milk powder users “are only buying loads to meet their immediate needs.” But for those that can’t do without, “it is difficult to find loads.” They bid the spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) market all the way up to $2.26 per pound this week, up 6ȼ from last Friday to a fresh all-time high.
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A steep decline in milk output in May likely slowed cheese production and tightened the supply of fresh cheese for sale in Chicago today, prompting the remarkable run in the spot market.
View reportAfter a few days romping around LaSalle Street, they left abruptly. By Thursday the market had run out of positive fundamental news with which to fill their troughs.
View reportThe markets sprinted straight uphill on Monday and with amazing stamina and speed, they maintained their frantic pace. They finally tired on Friday and despite the late-week retreat, the total mileage is impressive.
View reportThe pandemic sickened the dairy markets in April, creating immense pain on the farm. But there are better days ahead.
View reportThe inverted futures curve highlights that the fresh cheese shortage is likely temporary. But immediate demand must be formidable if we have managed to tighten up fresh cheese inventories so quickly after piling up cheese in immense volumes last month.
View reportThe dairy markets in general, and the cheese and butter markets in particular, have been buoyed by a perfect storm of purchases. This week’s vigorous rally suggests the dairy downturn may be over sooner than we had feared.
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