The Latest: July - 2025
Full Parlors, Fewer Culls: Dairy Bets on Growth
U.S. dairy producers are keeping cows in their barns rather than sending them to the slaughterhouse. Through mid-July, dairy producers culled 1.38 million milk cows. That’s 310,000 fewer than the 2020 through 2023 average, and it marks the lowest mid-July slaughter since 2008, when depressed cull rates fostered rapid – and ultimately unsustainable – expansion. Heifers are still in short supply.
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After much volatility, the boundaries are becoming clearer. The spread between blocks and barrels narrowed, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already complex cheese markets.
View reportAfter rocketing higher last week, CME spot Cheddar blocks continued to soar. But, the cheese markets are likely to remain volatile.
View reportThough the bulls made headway, their progress was laborious. Each week they argued that tighter milk supplies and falling cheese inventories should lift prices. Now, the bulls are clearly in charge.
View reportFootball season has arrived, schools are back in session, and cheese demand is excellent. Output is not keeping pace. While Cheddar blocks score fresh multi-year highs, spot butter reached a milestone of a very different sort.
View reportThis weeks rise in cheese prices in an already lofty market are truly impressive. Last week’s Cold Storage report showed an astounding drawdown in cheese inventories, and the spot markets suggest that fresh supplies are tight.
View reportDespite the rough week in the dairy pits, dairy product prices and Class III values in particular will soon find their footing.
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