The Latest: August - 2026
More Cows Equals More Milk
USDA raised its estimate of June milk production as well, from an already strong 2.3% increase to an impressive 3% advance. Dairy producers did not add any cows in July, according to USDA’s best guess, but they didn’t get rid of any either. The dairy herd held steady at 9.71 million cows, up 199,000 from the year before. The U.S. dairy industry is milking more cows than it has in 33 years, and those cows are making 59% more milk than they did in 1993, the last time the herd was this large, before adjusting for today’s super-charged components.
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The markets sprinted straight uphill on Monday and with amazing stamina and speed, they maintained their frantic pace. They finally tired on Friday and despite the late-week retreat, the total mileage is impressive.
View reportThe pandemic sickened the dairy markets in April, creating immense pain on the farm. But there are better days ahead.
View reportThe inverted futures curve highlights that the fresh cheese shortage is likely temporary. But immediate demand must be formidable if we have managed to tighten up fresh cheese inventories so quickly after piling up cheese in immense volumes last month.
View reportThe dairy markets in general, and the cheese and butter markets in particular, have been buoyed by a perfect storm of purchases. This week’s vigorous rally suggests the dairy downturn may be over sooner than we had feared.
View reportMost of the dairy complex gained ground last week, and this week prices moved higher across the board. Despite the recovery, the next several milk checks promise to be agonizingly inadequate.
View reportMost dairy markets bounced back this week. There is still more milk than the market needs but for myriad reasons, the excess has become a little less burdensome. The markets are working.
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