
The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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The spot dairy markets took a step back this week, but – for the most part – they remain noticeably higher than where they began the year. The cheese market was hardest hit. CME spot Cheddar blocks fell 7.5ȼ to $1.535 per pound. Barrels slipped 4.5ȼ to $1.365. As the spring flush boosts fresh cheese supplies, the bulls have given back some of last month’s significant gains.
View reportThe dairy markets spun their wheels this week. Traders seem a bit lost as they seek to navigate the shifting landscape. In the distance, highlighted by the third consecutive decline in USDA’s annual dairy heifer estimates, is the promise of a smaller milk cow herd, and perhaps lower milk output. Closer to the fore, the spring flush looms large.
View reportEarly this year, we highlighted the combination of too much milk on the market and mysteriously low demand. Now, demand is stronger. So why haven't prices improved?
View reportNow that an updated trilateral free trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico and Canada is tentatively in place, dairy industry players are combing through the details to get a sense of what will happen once the terms of the deal become effective in 2020.
View reportNews that American and Mexican trade authorities reached a tentative agreement on an updated NAFTA was welcomed by the dairy industry with open arms. But it's far from a sure thing: If Canada doesn't also buy into the deal, a new NAFTA will be sunk.
View reportIt’s strange how much can change over the course of a year and yet we end up almost where we started. Here we are again at the end of summer, back to talking about a butterfat shortage in Europe.
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