The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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Dairy markets were not immune, and after a healthy rally last week markets suffered a sizeable setback.
View reportThe steep December selloff was a necessary correction and was not the start of a sustained downtrend. With the exception of butter, dairy demand is outpacing supply and supporting dairy product prices.
View reportCME spot Cheddar barrels dropped to a 10-month low but came roaring back. The powder markets firmed as well.
View reportMilk yields and components remain high while an unsettled market tries to digest the holiday excess.
View reportRevenues improved throughout the year. Although not sufficient to undo years of financial distress, it is the highest revenue since 2014 and worthy of celebration.
View reportThe market did its job, encouraging production, discouraging sales, and returning to equilibrium at more sustainable values.
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