
The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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Buyers and sellers jockeyed to exert their influence on the trade. The action in the cheese markets was relatively subdued, however important movements in the nonfat dry milk, whey, and especially butter markets, kept observers on their toes.
View reportThe phenomenon is certainly not limited to the United States. Market observers watched the Global Dairy Trade index climb on Tuesday by 4.1%, with the index reaching the highest level seen since February 2014.
View reportNearly every product lost ground at the CME as market participants challenged the high product prices seen in recent weeks. However, the butter markets really stole the show.
View reportAt the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction on Tuesday, the GDT Index jumped 4.6% to its highest price since March 2014, led by a 5.6% increase in the price of whole milk powder (WMP). GDT butter and cheese both scored all-time highs, while SMP climbed to prices not seen in nearly eight years.
View reportMarkets are swinging wildly from heart-stopping highs to stomach-churning lows and back again. But unlike thrill rides, the dairy markets are breaking new ground.
View reportPrices are high and extremely volatile as the trade assesses how long global milk output will remain depressed and whether demand will hold firm despite the rising cost of dairy.
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