The Latest: May - 2026
Entire Dairy Complex Deflated
A tiny bit of air leaked out of the spot milk powder market, and the entire dairy complex deflated. CME spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) notched an all-time high on Tuesday at $2.265 per pound. Prices slipped Wednesday and Thursday and then bounced back on Friday. Spot NDM closed the week at $2.2625, just a hairsbreadth off the high and up 0.25ȼ for the week. But when spot NDM took a breather, dairy futures collapsed. Milk, cheese, whey, butter, and milk powder futures lost ground nearly every day this week. July and August NDM futures plummeted 4ȼ on Friday, their maximum daily loss, despite the late-week rebound in the spot market.
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The cheese markets came charging out of the gates on Monday. The strong start left some market participants scratching their heads. Cheese exports are still strong but none of that gave the cheese markets the energy they needed to maintain their early week sprint.
View reportThe cheese markets got off to a particularly rough start, with big losses both Tuesday and Wednesday. But after a few nights of better rest and healthier habits, they recovered well. Cheese prices are near year-ago levels, suggesting that demand has kept pace with strong production.
View reportThe butter market began the year at a relatively lofty height, suffered a few spectacular setbacks, and then climbed anew. It spent an unprecedented 57 trading sessions at $3 or above and set a new all-time high of $3.2675 per pound in early October.
View reportCME spot Cheddar blocks dropped and barrels fared even worse. Cheese output remains strong, and there are fears that demand will no longer keep pace.
View reportThe factors that propelled milk prices above $25 per cwt. this summer are no longer in play. But those extremely bullish forces will continue to impact the markets for a little while longer, as exporters fill orders signed months ago when most U.S. dairy product prices were more competitive than they are today.
View reportDairy markets headed into the Thanksgiving weekend with a double portion of USDA reports and finished with a mountain of data to swallow from today’s Dairy Products report. News of lower milk output in Australia and New Zealand made for appetizing side dishes together with news that the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates at a trot rather than a gallop.
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