
The Latest: July - 2025
U.S. and China Relationship Remains Precarious
U.S. dairy trade data for May was released, showing mixed performance. U.S. dairy exports to China plummeted during the month, reflecting the intensifying trade conflict between the two countries. Low protein whey products were the most affected as the dramatic drop in Chinese demand caused year over year U.S. exports of dry whey, modified whey, and whey protein concentrates with protein levels under 80% to fall by 19.9%, 16.5%, and 35.6%, respectively.
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The dairy markets are still concerned about demand. Global milk output is growing slowly and dairy product inventories are not burdensome. But tight supplies are not enough to lift the market when prices are already quite lofty. Consumption must be healthy too.
View reportFor months, the dairy markets have focused on shrinking global milk output and barriers to rapid expansion. Tight supplies pushed dairy prices to record highs. Now, concerns about demand have come to the fore.
View reportDairy markets moved this way and that without much conviction this week. Prices are historically lofty, but not high enough to bring on a lot of new milk in a world of $8 corn and $2,000 springers. At what point do high prices hinder demand?
View reportMilk powder was especially weak and whole milk powder (WMP) prices fell 4.4%, logging their third straight decline. Skim milk powder (SMP) suffered its first setback at the GDT since July. U.S. milk output has fallen short of the prior year for six of the past seven months, its longest such streak since 2009.
View reportCheese output continues to outpace every other year on record, but, due to persistent supply chain issues, it is lower than it could be. For months, cheese makers and other dairy processors have struggled to find the materials, truck drivers, and staff they need to run at capacity, and there is no relief in sight.
View reportEven as milk production expands seasonally, volumes are tending to run at or below prior year levels. This supports the notion that even though milk prices remain historically strong, the increased pressure caused by rising operating costs gives producers continued margin concerns.
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