The Latest: February - 2026
Product Scarcity Driving the Milk Powder Market
Product scarcity seems to be driving the gains in the milk powder market as buyers seeking product are coming up empty-handed. According to USDA’s Dairy Products report, combined output of NDM and skim milk powder (SMP) was just 170.3 million pounds in December, down 6.2% compared to the same month last year. NDM prices have been climbing since January, but the trajectory accelerated meaningfully this week. After taking a brief respite on Monday, the spot price for NDM rose every day between Tuesday and Friday, delivering an 18¢ increase, and qualifying as the commodity’s strongest week since May 2007.
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This weeks rise in cheese prices in an already lofty market are truly impressive. Last week’s Cold Storage report showed an astounding drawdown in cheese inventories, and the spot markets suggest that fresh supplies are tight.
View reportDespite the rough week in the dairy pits, dairy product prices and Class III values in particular will soon find their footing.
View reportThe spot markets have been buoyed by robust near-term fundamentals. However, dairy futures were far from exuberant this week and some new clouds have moved onto the horizon.
View reportThe stock market suffered its worst losses of the year on Monday but the U.S. dairy markets remain firmly supported as milk tightens. On Monday, USDA will publish its much-anticipated Acreage and Crop Production reports. Next week could be volatile.
View reportAlthough the bulls did not assert themselves this week, the bears are not in charge. Aside from the break from the extreme heat, all the factors that propelled the markets to their recent peak remain in play.
View reportDairy producers would surely prefer the energy of the early-stage rally to today’s more plodding progress. The plateau is a sign of healthy markets at work.
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