The Latest: August - 2026
More Cows Equals More Milk
USDA raised its estimate of June milk production as well, from an already strong 2.3% increase to an impressive 3% advance. Dairy producers did not add any cows in July, according to USDA’s best guess, but they didn’t get rid of any either. The dairy herd held steady at 9.71 million cows, up 199,000 from the year before. The U.S. dairy industry is milking more cows than it has in 33 years, and those cows are making 59% more milk than they did in 1993, the last time the herd was this large, before adjusting for today’s super-charged components.
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The Midwest is awash in milk, and many dairy producers have been forced to dump milk that could not find a home. Cheesemakers say they are taking all they can, but the spot milk market is still “sloppy,” with more loads trading at steeper discounts.
View reportThere is simply too much cheese. USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that cheese production schedules are “steady to stronger” and, for some cheesemakers, “limited warehouse space is becoming a concern.” Meanwhile, there is plenty of milk, especially now that bottlers are slowing down intakes for summer break.
View reportCME spot whey powder touched a record low on Monday, trading below 26ȼ for the first time in its five-year tenure at the spot market. But it perked up from there, finishing today at 27.5ȼ. That’s still cheap, but it’s a penny higher than last Friday.
View reportSpot whey also dipped below 30ȼ in 2020, when the pandemic closed nearly every gym in the nation and demand for protein drinks plummeted. Today, the cause is much less dramatic. Processors are simply making more whey powder than the market needs.
View reportThe bears prowled LaSalle Street this week, and the bulls were nowhere to be found. Spot dairy product values slumped, and milk futures followed them lower. The cheese market led the way downward.
View reportBy all accounts, there is still plenty of milk, and driers are running hard. In March, U.S. output of NDM and SMP reached 236 million pounds, up 0.6% from a year ago.
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