The Latest: September - 2025
No Bulls to Be Found on LaSalle Street
There were no bulls to be found on LaSalle Street this week. The bears roamed freely, showing no fear of an overcorrection even as parts of the dairy complex scored multi-year lows. Red ink poured into the cheese and milk powder trade and deluged the butter market. CME spot butter plummeted to $1.86 per pound, down 16.25ȼ in just five trading sessions. Spot butter is down more than 40% from the mid-summer high, languishing at its lowest level since October 2021, nearly four years ago. The weakness carried across the futures board, with May through October 2026 contracts dropping 10ȼ or more on Friday.
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The bears were out in force this week, pressuring the dairy markets to new lows as supplies accumulated and global demand prospects dimmed. Though risks and challenges persist, milk production has generally been strong across the U.S.
View reportThe cheese markets came charging out of the gates on Monday. The strong start left some market participants scratching their heads. Cheese exports are still strong but none of that gave the cheese markets the energy they needed to maintain their early week sprint.
View reportThe cheese markets got off to a particularly rough start, with big losses both Tuesday and Wednesday. But after a few nights of better rest and healthier habits, they recovered well. Cheese prices are near year-ago levels, suggesting that demand has kept pace with strong production.
View reportThe butter market began the year at a relatively lofty height, suffered a few spectacular setbacks, and then climbed anew. It spent an unprecedented 57 trading sessions at $3 or above and set a new all-time high of $3.2675 per pound in early October.
View reportCME spot Cheddar blocks dropped and barrels fared even worse. Cheese output remains strong, and there are fears that demand will no longer keep pace.
View reportThe factors that propelled milk prices above $25 per cwt. this summer are no longer in play. But those extremely bullish forces will continue to impact the markets for a little while longer, as exporters fill orders signed months ago when most U.S. dairy product prices were more competitive than they are today.
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