The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
View Report
The butter market’s luck has changed dramatically. After repeatedly setting record highs since late September, the market descended in dramatic fashion this week. Despite the decline, butter prices remain historically strong as cream is tight and buyers are making their final orders ahead of the holiday season.
View reportLike a mountaineer surveying Everest from K2, the butter market is exploring new heights. CME spot butter scaled a previously unconquered peak last week, and it didn’t stop there. This week it ascended another 20.25ȼ to a fresh all-time high at $3.5025 per pound. U.S. butter output topped year-ago production by wide margins in January through July.
View reportThe U.S. butter market took off like a rocket. It soared 30ȼ this week and closed at $3.30 per pound, just shy of the all-time high set yesterday. The meteoric strength caught the market by surprise.
View reportCME spot butter soared an astounding 28.25ȼ this week and closed right at the $3 mark. Exports are out of the question, but domestic demand is firm, and butter churns are running light.
View reportThe Class III markets took a big step back this week. Cooler weather has boosted yields, providing a little more milk for cheese vats. Loads of spot milk still command a premium in the Midwest, but they are slightly cheaper than they were in early September. Dairy cow slaughter is not running as hot as it did this summer, which suggests that dairy producers were feeling a little more hopeful in late August and early September.
View reportHigher temperatures fired up the dairy markets over the past few weeks, but now the mercury has fallen and so have cheese prices. Cheese output waned in July to 1.16 million pounds, 0.7% less than July 2022, marking the steepest year-over-year drop in U.S. cheese production since August 2020.
View report