Market Reports

The dairy markets are awash in a tidal wave of milk. USDA’s latest Milk Production report showed that August milk output was notably higher than previously thought, and the agency pegged September milk production at 19.4 billion pounds, up 2.6% year over year, far higher than LaSalle Street expected. The recent ups and downs in the dairy markets did not diminish dairy producers’ appetite for growth. They added 26,000 cows last month, lifting the dairy herd to 9.74 million head.

It was a wild week on LaSalle as the dairy markets swung dramatically. After dipping to multi-year lows in recent weeks both cheese and butter spot values found traction at the CME. Meanwhile, dry whey continued its upward campaign, rising to a new record high. Only nonfat dry milk prices retreated, though they remain very strong compared to historical standards.

The gap between U.S. and international milk powder values has widened to a chasm and even buyers in Mexico are starting to look elsewhere. After glancing at prices across the border, Mexican buyers stepped up the volume of their bids at the GDT this week. That’s evidence of a downshift in U.S. trade prospects, which were already in decline.

The dairy markets continue to diverge. Strong demand for proteins is lifting powder values. This week, CME spot whey powder gained another 2ȼ and reached 82.5ȼ per pound, a fresh 4.5-year high. Spot nonfat dry milk added a nickel, climbing to $2.22, just 7.5ȼ below the all-time high reached this spring. Asian buyers are eager to import U.S. whey powder, propping up prices despite robust production. For NDM, both domestic and international demand are strong, while production remains restrained. Other dairy processors are lapping up much of the milk supply, spot milk prices are rising, and dryers are running light in the Southwest. U.S. milk powder exports to Mexico are formidable.

Protein reigns supreme over the dairy complex. In the GLP-1 era, consumers are hungry for protein in all forms, and dairy delivers. Whey proteins are particularly desirable thanks to their neutral flavor. Food processors covet whey powders, protein concentrates (WPCs), and protein isolates (WPIs) as they seek to improve nutritional labels without sacrificing on taste or texture. Demand for WPC with at least 80% protein has faded as prices have climbed high enough to push buyers to alternative sources, including milk protein concentrate. But food makers continue to snap up WPC-34 and WPIs.

The dairy markets are singing the same song as they were last week, only louder. Dairy proteins are in demand, and prices continue to climb. But we’re making more cheese and butter than the market can absorb, and those markets are in retreat.