Market Reports

Better demand could also lift the dairy markets out of the bargain basement. Even after accounting for new tariffs, U.S. dairy products are competitively priced, especially when compared to dairy products priced in euros rather than dollars. The invisible hand will slowly bring U.S. dairy products to new buyers and boost prices, but it could be a slow, painful process.

Trade threats – and new tariffs on U.S. dairy exports to Canada and China – have spooked the markets and slowed sales. Importers don’t want to speak for milk powder that might face a tariff down the road. And domestic users are also going hand-to-mouth, anticipating further declines in this export-dependent market. Whey prices just keep dropping.

The situation may have changed by the time you read this, but for now, here’s the status of the relationship: The U.S. will not impose tariffs on goods covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, while most agricultural and auto-industry goods will be protected from tariffs through their USMCA status, many businesses had opted out of the complicated and expensive process of certifying that their products are USMCA-compliant.

The dairy markets suffered a deluge of data and news that invigorated the bears. The trade war heated up, while USDA highlighted abundance in its monthly Cold Storage report and at its annual Outlook Forum. On Thursday, President Trump cleared up some confusion about the timing of a proposed 25% tariff on all U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico. He vowed on Truth Social that “the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will indeed, go into effect, as scheduled.”

After slipping in the final months of 2024, output appears to have grown in January, rising to 19.1 billion pounds. The 0.1% increase reported in USDA’s Milk Production report was modest, but nevertheless suggests that producers may now be responding to strong margins and overcoming animal health challenges in order to expand.

A potential trade war is worrisome for the cheese sector, which has come to depend increasingly on the export market to absorb production. According to USDA’s Supply and Utilization data, total domestic cheese disappearance fell by 17.3 million pounds in 2024, dragged down by weaker consumption of American style cheeses. Over the same period, however, exports grew by 170.2 million pounds, more than compensating for slow domestic demand and preventing stock accumulation.