
The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
View Report
There are plenty of reasons why dairy markets in the U.S. remain sluggish, but it’s partly due to the European Commission's decision to lift milk production quotas that had been in place for EU member states since 1984. It wasn’t clear how much more milk would flood the market, but Europe is the largest milkshed in the world. There was bound to be an impact.
View reportWithout a doubt, the American dairy industry has benefited greatly since NAFTA became effective in 1994. In fact, agriculture in the U.S. has been the biggest beneficiary of the deal. But President Donald Trump’s pledge to renegotiate NAFTA shortly after he took office put its future in sudden limbo.
View reportAfter months of relative stability in the market, nonfat dry milk prices plummeted five cents in nine days in October. Normally, this is the time to make holiday orders and prepare for next year’s contracts. That activity sends signals to the market responsible for its cyclical wintertime peak. But none of those signals has come.
View reportIt’s early fall. That typically means dairy markets begin tightening up as milk production wanes post-flush; normally, draw-downs start on inventories built in spring and summer. But this time around, something is off. The only remarkable thing about dairy markets right now is how unremarkable they are. What’s the deal?
View reportThe beginning of October is a key time in the dairy industry as buyers start placing holiday orders and markets begin to move the way we always expect them to ahead of a more festive time of year. But a mild summer kept milk supplies longer than normal deeper into the season. Even rallying butter prices lost their momentum. Will a somewhat strange end to the summer lead to any surprises in markets toward the tail end of this year?
View reportWe’re in the thick of the summer doldrums. It’s expected during these mid-summer weeks that dairy markets do not move much. And they haven’t. But the doldrums don’t mean there’s nothing interesting going on. Dairy industry observers are intrigued by notably sluggish retail and consumer cheese sales even though summertime usually means those sales should be peaking.
View report