The Latest: October - 2025
Heavy Milk Output Continues to Weigh on Dairy Product Pricing
The dairy industry is the victim of its own success. Heavy milk output continues to weigh on milk and dairy product prices. USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that in California, milk production tops year-ago levels by a wide margin, “edging into double digits.” The eye-popping year-over-year increase can be partially explained by the onset of the devastating bird flu last year and the healthier herd today. That does not change the fact that the market has significantly more milk to absorb than it did in late 2024 and early 2025.
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Fears that the meteoric rise was all sparkle and no substance were doused by buyer’s willingness to step in and make a purchase, rather than sit on the sidelines and let the selloff run its course.
View reportA steep decline in milk output in May likely slowed cheese production and tightened the supply of fresh cheese for sale in Chicago today, prompting the remarkable run in the spot market.
View reportAfter a few days romping around LaSalle Street, they left abruptly. By Thursday the market had run out of positive fundamental news with which to fill their troughs.
View reportThe markets sprinted straight uphill on Monday and with amazing stamina and speed, they maintained their frantic pace. They finally tired on Friday and despite the late-week retreat, the total mileage is impressive.
View reportThe pandemic sickened the dairy markets in April, creating immense pain on the farm. But there are better days ahead.
View reportThe inverted futures curve highlights that the fresh cheese shortage is likely temporary. But immediate demand must be formidable if we have managed to tighten up fresh cheese inventories so quickly after piling up cheese in immense volumes last month.
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