The Latest: November - 2025
Larger Herd Continues to Drive Stronger Output
Milk continues to gush across the United States. In the most recent Milk Production report, USDA pegged October production at 19.47 billion pounds, representing a year over year gain of 3.7%. A larger herd continues to drive stronger output, but the tide may be shifting. For the first time this year dairy producers reduced cow numbers by 6,000 head during October, bringing the national herd to 9.575 million head. Even so, cow numbers are up an astonishing 208,000 head compared to a year ago.
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February through December contracts posted life-of-contract highs, a sign of health and good cheer.
View reportThere is plenty of fodder for both the bulls and the bears, creating a rather schizophrenic trading market. We’re in a full-blown weather market, and the futures will be as fickle as the forecast.
View reportConcerns about worsening demand are colliding with rising supplies as milk floods the market.
View reportAll eyes were on the CME spot Cheddar markets this week as blocks, and especially barrels, moved decisively lower. Spot barrel prices plunged in recent days and Cheddar spot blocks also moved below $2 for the first time since early September.
View reportCME spot Cheddar barrels climbed to an all-time high last Friday and managed to cling to the precipice on Monday. Then their perch gave way and they plunged over the cliff.
View reportTrading volumes were light, but that led to a sense of foreboding. The rally is real, but how long can it last? The futures curve reflects traders’ fears that the market cannot sustain these prices into next year.
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