The Latest: December - 2025
Drowning in Butterfat
The U.S. dairy industry is drowning in butterfat. In October, America’s dairy herd cranked out 3.7% more milk than the year before, and cream production soared 5.9% year over year. On Monday, USDA will publish a fresh round of milk production data, and even greater gains are likely.
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Demand is robust from both manufacturers and bottlers though Class I demand is expected to wane in the coming weeks as schools begin to rotate through spring breaks. More universally, however, a persistent shortage of truck drivers and escalating fuel costs are exacerbating logistical challenges.
View reportDairy producers cannot afford to pay this much for feed unless milk prices remain high. The market is well aware that global dairy stocks are relatively low, and that output is shrinking. So, for now, milk prices are climbing nearly step for step with the feed market to deter further declines in milk production.
View reportHigh feed costs and pricey energy will quickly add up on the farm. Feed and energy costs are even higher in Europe, which will further deter growth on the continent.
View reportIn December, milk production among the world’s five largest dairy exporters fell 1.3% below December 2020, the steepest decline in five years. At 19 billion pounds, U.S. milk production was 1.6% lower than in January 2021, the steepest decline since March 2004.
View reportButter and Cheddar reached all-time highs at the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction on Tuesday, while both skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) prices climbed to fresh seven-year highs.
View reportBuyers and sellers jockeyed to exert their influence on the trade. The action in the cheese markets was relatively subdued, however important movements in the nonfat dry milk, whey, and especially butter markets, kept observers on their toes.
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