The Latest: May - 2026
Entire Dairy Complex Deflated
A tiny bit of air leaked out of the spot milk powder market, and the entire dairy complex deflated. CME spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) notched an all-time high on Tuesday at $2.265 per pound. Prices slipped Wednesday and Thursday and then bounced back on Friday. Spot NDM closed the week at $2.2625, just a hairsbreadth off the high and up 0.25ȼ for the week. But when spot NDM took a breather, dairy futures collapsed. Milk, cheese, whey, butter, and milk powder futures lost ground nearly every day this week. July and August NDM futures plummeted 4ȼ on Friday, their maximum daily loss, despite the late-week rebound in the spot market.
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Butter production is always scant in the summer, but it was especially so this year. There were just 314.4 million pounds of butter in cold storage at the end of July, 5.4% less than a year ago and the lowest mid-summer total since 2017.
View reportMarket observers are paying close attention to an evolving global milk production scenario as many key supply regions witnessed a shift in trajectory during June. U.S. production moved into positive territory during the month, rising by a modest 0.2% after months of decline.
View reportThe United States sent a record-setting volume of dairy products abroad in May. Then, after adjusting for a shorter month, it bested that record in June.
View reportThe bulls and bears squared off in Chicago this week, and the dairy markets lurched this way and that as the two sides fought for control. By Wednesday and Thursday, the bears won the upper hand, fueled by news that the U.S. economy contracted in the first half of the year, and that the Federal Reserve hoped to tamp down inflation by raising interest rates yet again.
View reportAfter seven months in the red, U.S. milk production exceeded year-ago volumes in June, topping June 2021 by 0.2%.
View reportU.S. inflation accelerated to 9.1% last month, reducing Americans’ purchasing power at the fastest rate since 1981. The dairy markets suffered too.
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