The Latest: October - 2026
Dairy Market Continues to Diverge
The dairy markets continue to diverge. Strong demand for proteins is lifting powder values. This week, CME spot whey powder gained another 2ȼ and reached 82.5ȼ per pound, a fresh 4.5-year high. Spot nonfat dry milk added a nickel, climbing to $2.22, just 7.5ȼ below the all-time high reached this spring. Asian buyers are eager to import U.S. whey powder, propping up prices despite robust production. For NDM, both domestic and international demand are strong, while production remains restrained. Other dairy processors are lapping up much of the milk supply, spot milk prices are rising, and dryers are running light in the Southwest. U.S. milk powder exports to Mexico are formidable.
View Report
The official start of spring is right around the corner and milk volumes are responding accordingly. Output is steady to higher in most parts of the country as the spring flush rolls in.
View reportRapid expansion, slower pull from bottlers ahead of spring break, and unplanned plant shutdowns have all contributed to the excess in the Central region. Some plants are not running as hard as they might have in the past. But the less aggressive increase does have one upside; according to USDA, “cheese stores are not getting ahead of processors.”
View reportCull rates are high, and there is a long list of dairies for sale at the major auction houses. But it will take some time – perhaps six months or more – before this pain on the farm translates to less milk. For now, there is milk aplenty.
View reportRested up after a long weekend, the cheese markets came charging out of the gates but they gave it all back later in the week. Milk remains cheap in the cheese states which should result in higher cheese production. Weather issues, labor shortages, and mechanical problems have slowed cheese production all year, creating a chicken-and-egg conundrum.
View reportActivity at the spot market in Chicago was mixed this week as prices moved modestly up and down, testing new boundaries. Milk remains plentiful in most parts of the country, especially the Midwest, but lower commodity prices appear to be doing the legwork of generating additional customer interest.
View reportTypically, a fumble in the spot market and signs of surplus would weigh heavily on cheese and Class III futures. But the bulls reclaimed possession and shrugged off one tackle after another. Dairy – and especially cheese – will feature heavily in football-themed feasts this Sunday. But after the final field goal, there will be a seasonal lull until Easter.
View report