
The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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The dairy markets are full of Christmas cheer for producers, while dairy buyers are grunting “Bah! Humbug,” into their egg nog. The milkfat market is especially festive and the whey market just keeps climbing.
View reportLower milk production abroad will make more room for U.S. dairy product exports, even if the global appetite for dairy products fades modestly.
View reportFrom the darkest corners of the Board of Trade building, the bears whispered their concerns about the health of the global economy and accelerating inflation. But their warnings were drowned out by the stamping of hooves as the markets shot enthusiastically upward.
View reportChurns made just 159.4 million pounds of butter in October, down 1.6% from a year ago. Stiff competition for cream and supply chain tangles likely kept a lid on output in November as well.
View reportAccording to USDA’s Milk Production report, U.S. milk production dropped to 18.5 billion pounds in October, down 0.5% from October 2020. That’s the steepest year-over-year decline in milk output since March 2019.
View reportHigher operating expenses and feed bills have significantly raised the cost of production for dairy producers, eating deep into milk checks. Like every industry, dairy producers must also absorb the intangible expense of increased inefficiencies caused by product shortages and logistics headaches.
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