The Latest: December - 2025
In a World Flush With Milk
In a world flush with milk, competition for market share is getting fiercer by the day. The U.S. has struggled to gain traction on milk powder sales, and it may lose ground for cheese, butter, and whey powder if the price is not right. It’s possible that first-quarter cheese sales will disappoint after the October rally pushed importers to look elsewhere. Indeed, given the scale of U.S. cheese output, anything short of the recent record-setting volumes is likely to feel inadequate.
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CME spot whey powder touched a record low on Monday, trading below 26ȼ for the first time in its five-year tenure at the spot market. But it perked up from there, finishing today at 27.5ȼ. That’s still cheap, but it’s a penny higher than last Friday.
View reportSpot whey also dipped below 30ȼ in 2020, when the pandemic closed nearly every gym in the nation and demand for protein drinks plummeted. Today, the cause is much less dramatic. Processors are simply making more whey powder than the market needs.
View reportThe bears prowled LaSalle Street this week, and the bulls were nowhere to be found. Spot dairy product values slumped, and milk futures followed them lower. The cheese market led the way downward.
View reportBy all accounts, there is still plenty of milk, and driers are running hard. In March, U.S. output of NDM and SMP reached 236 million pounds, up 0.6% from a year ago.
View reportThe feed markets tumbled once again this week and dairy producers can thank Brazilian farmers for the setback. Brazil lacks the infrastructure to hold this year’s bin-busting production. Brazilian soybeans outprice U.S. soy by such a wide margin, two ships with Brazilian soybeans will hit the U.S. Southeast coast this week.
View reportWith more cows in the barn, milk production climbed, but the increase was far from formidable. Our competitors overseas also reported modest growth.
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