The Latest: November - 2025
Larger Herd Continues to Drive Stronger Output
Milk continues to gush across the United States. In the most recent Milk Production report, USDA pegged October production at 19.47 billion pounds, representing a year over year gain of 3.7%. A larger herd continues to drive stronger output, but the tide may be shifting. For the first time this year dairy producers reduced cow numbers by 6,000 head during October, bringing the national herd to 9.575 million head. Even so, cow numbers are up an astonishing 208,000 head compared to a year ago.
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The bears prowled LaSalle Street this week, and the bulls were nowhere to be found. Spot dairy product values slumped, and milk futures followed them lower. The cheese market led the way downward.
View reportBy all accounts, there is still plenty of milk, and driers are running hard. In March, U.S. output of NDM and SMP reached 236 million pounds, up 0.6% from a year ago.
View reportThe feed markets tumbled once again this week and dairy producers can thank Brazilian farmers for the setback. Brazil lacks the infrastructure to hold this year’s bin-busting production. Brazilian soybeans outprice U.S. soy by such a wide margin, two ships with Brazilian soybeans will hit the U.S. Southeast coast this week.
View reportWith more cows in the barn, milk production climbed, but the increase was far from formidable. Our competitors overseas also reported modest growth.
View reportInk ran red on LaSalle Street this week, led by a precipitous decline in barrels. Blocks lost ground too, but their decline was not nearly so dramatic.
View reportOver the holiday shortened week, every commodity lost ground at the CME spot market. Price declines were not limited only to the United States, however. At Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event the GDT Index fell by 4.7%, weighed down by losses across every product except Cheddar cheese.
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