The Latest: October - 2025
Overall Market Tone Remains Bearish
Dairy markets both in the U.S. and across the globe continue to feel out the balance of supply and demand. Although the dramatic price decreases seen during the last few weeks have given way to more modest movements, the overall market tone remains bearish. Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, albeit glitchy, ultimately saw the GDT Price Index move down 1.4%, the fifth consecutive lower result. The decline in the index reflected lower prices across every product except anhydrous milkfat.
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Dairy commodity prices continue to flounder under the pressure of plentiful supplies and, in turn, are weighing on milk prices.
View reportDespite falling milk prices and tightening margins, milk supplies remain ample in most parts of the country. Elevated summer temperatures and humidity are starting to weigh on cow comfort and negatively impact output, but only in parts of the nation.
View reportThe Midwest region has been overwhelmed with excess milk since December, and producers are paying for it in the form of steep discounts on spot milk, bigger freight deductions, and – in the worst instances – dumped milk.
View reportThe long-awaited rains have disappointed so far. A weekend drizzle and sporadic showers over the past few days have not added up to much, and soils are parched in the Corn Belt. USDA estimates that 57% of U.S. corn production is currently struggling through drought.
View reportThe Midwest is awash in milk, and many dairy producers have been forced to dump milk that could not find a home. Cheesemakers say they are taking all they can, but the spot milk market is still “sloppy,” with more loads trading at steeper discounts.
View reportThere is simply too much cheese. USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that cheese production schedules are “steady to stronger” and, for some cheesemakers, “limited warehouse space is becoming a concern.” Meanwhile, there is plenty of milk, especially now that bottlers are slowing down intakes for summer break.
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