Market Reports

Cheese exports have soared to record high levels. After crossing the 50,000 metric ton (MT) threshold for the first time in May, U.S. cheese exports notched another record in June with shipments reaching 52,191 MT, or an equivalent of 115.1 million pounds. Stronger exports to key destinations like Mexico, South Korea, and Japan all supported the record high figure.

With most of the major dairy exporters – and especially the United States – in growth mode, global dairy supplies are on the rise. In the first few months of the year, combined milk output among the top five dairy exporters fell short of 2023 volumes. But since April, when the U.S. shifted into a higher gear, milk production among these major players has set new highs.

U.S. dairy producers are keeping cows in their barns rather than sending them to the slaughterhouse. Through mid-July, dairy producers culled 1.38 million milk cows. That’s 310,000 fewer than the 2020 through 2023 average, and it marks the lowest mid-July slaughter since 2008, when depressed cull rates fostered rapid – and ultimately unsustainable – expansion. Heifers are still in short supply.

The dairy markets have lost that summer sizzle. It’s still hot in the Northeast and in states along the West Coast. Milk production is much lower than it was during the spring flush, just as it always is in mid-July. Components have dropped. But in the center of the country, cows are enjoying cool nights and recovering from the sweltering conditions that prevailed a couple weeks ago. Milk yields are bouncing back in the Midwest.

U.S. dairy trade data for May was released, showing mixed performance. U.S. dairy exports to China plummeted during the month, reflecting the intensifying trade conflict between the two countries. Low protein whey products were the most affected as the dramatic drop in Chinese demand caused year over year U.S. exports of dry whey, modified whey, and whey protein concentrates with protein levels under 80% to fall by 19.9%, 16.5%, and 35.6%, respectively.

The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.