Market Reports

Manufacturers report that cheese demand is robust and that spot milk for manufacturing is available and affordable. While cheese manufacturers would be keen to capitalize on the available milk, a plethora of issues are complicating operations and preventing additional output.

USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that domestic cheese demand is “healthy”. Exporters are busy moving product they contracted to sell last month when prices were lower, which tightens the supply of fresh cheese available for sale in Chicago.

Class III and Class IV futures settled today not far from where they finished last Friday.Those prices are generally disappointing for dairy producers, but they are not low enough to significantly slow milk output. The dairy herd is massive, and it’s likely to stay that way for a while.

The mercury is climbing on the West Coast and heat stress is dragging down milk yields. In the Northeast temperatures are expected to average above normal, gradually bringing an end to the spring flush. But in the Midwest and Southern Plains it’s unusually cool. Milk yields have slipped from the peak, but the mild weather is prolonging the flush, no matter what the calendar says.

After a few hot weeks, stress is starting to sap milk yields. Nevertheless, there is more milk than manufacturers can accommodate in the Southwest and mountain states despite supply management programs.

Summer is off to a sweltering start in much of the nation and there is still plenty of milk. Cheese plants are running full throttle, demand is strong and exports are booming.

Exports will be an important outlet for a market that is heavy with product. There is plenty of milk, and cheese plants are running full throttle.

Spot milk values in the Upper Midwest fell hard this week, making clear that milk is abundant. Steep discounts on spot milk incentivize cheese producers to squeeze in extra loads. Given these discounts and expansions in cheese processing capacity this year, we’ve been making massive volumes of cheese.

The nation is awash in milk. The dairy herd has not been this large since 1994. High feed costs may deter further expansion, but with that kind of cow power, the industry is sure to keep milk production well above prior-year levels for months to come. May output is likely to impress. While the rest of the dairy complex retreats, whey advances.

Some dairy producers are partially shielded from higher feed expenses through a combination of inventories, contracts, and farming. Many have been battered by low Class IV values and widespread depooling, and are now being clobbered by immense feed bills. They are reeling.