The Latest: April - 2025
Milk Output Is On The Rise
For producers who have been considering retirement for years, slim margins and high cow values offer a lucrative exit ramp. The auction docket is growing, which could allow producers to buy replacements and boost cull rates. Eventually, that could shrink the dairy herd. But for now, slaughter volumes remain low and milk output is on the rise.
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A steep decline in milk output in May likely slowed cheese production and tightened the supply of fresh cheese for sale in Chicago today, prompting the remarkable run in the spot market.
View reportAfter a few days romping around LaSalle Street, they left abruptly. By Thursday the market had run out of positive fundamental news with which to fill their troughs.
View reportThe markets sprinted straight uphill on Monday and with amazing stamina and speed, they maintained their frantic pace. They finally tired on Friday and despite the late-week retreat, the total mileage is impressive.
View reportThe pandemic sickened the dairy markets in April, creating immense pain on the farm. But there are better days ahead.
View reportThe inverted futures curve highlights that the fresh cheese shortage is likely temporary. But immediate demand must be formidable if we have managed to tighten up fresh cheese inventories so quickly after piling up cheese in immense volumes last month.
View reportThe dairy markets in general, and the cheese and butter markets in particular, have been buoyed by a perfect storm of purchases. This week’s vigorous rally suggests the dairy downturn may be over sooner than we had feared.
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