The Latest: November - 2025
Markets Swinging Wildly Because of Politics and Anxiety
The commodity markets swung wildly back and forth this week, buffeted this way and that by politics and anxiety. While the U.S. economy continues to expand, growth is uneven. Lower-income consumers are struggling, and many middle-class Americans are watching their budgets more closely. They’re dining out less and seeking bargains when they do. Many shoppers are trading down to store brands or switching to discount retailers. This week, the Trump administration and a federal judge sparred over the timing and amount of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits the government will fund during the partial shutdown, leaving the 43 million Americans who receive SNAP benefits in limbo.
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After the enthusiasm ignited by last week’s USDA announcement, most commodities struggled to keep the momentum going. The butter and cheese markets both finished the week on a softer note while dry products, especially whey, fared somewhat better.
View reportMonday’s announcement that the USDA is extending its Farmers to Families Food Box Program spurred dairy commodity prices upward, with all products seeing gains during Tuesday’s spot session.
View reportThere is no word yet on when USDA will begin spending its allocations, which makes it difficult to assess the repercussions for the dairy markets. The dairy funding could make a big splash if it is spent in a short time, or slowly ripple through the markets if spent steadily throughout the next year.
View reportA setback is possible, but it’s impossible to predict the timing or magnitude of a retreat from the highs. Seasoned traders warn “Don’t fight the trend.”
View reportFebruary through December contracts posted life-of-contract highs, a sign of health and good cheer.
View reportThere is plenty of fodder for both the bulls and the bears, creating a rather schizophrenic trading market. We’re in a full-blown weather market, and the futures will be as fickle as the forecast.
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