The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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Consumers continue to reach for kitchen staples that are familiar and convenient, and Cheddar fits the bill.
View reportAll of the CME spot markets moved higher, and cheese did so with particular verve. Once the laggard, barrels are now the leader.
View reportThose markets that gained ground last week gave some of it back this week, while last week’s losers are now on the rise.
View reportCME spot Cheddar blocks soared to the largest single-session increase on record. Barrels followed reluctantly and the block-barrel spread gaped. The market is on tenterhooks to see whether blocks will move lower or barrels higher to close the gap.
View reportDairy producers are doing their best to top up the bulk tank while the futures promise decent Class III values. Cheesemakers are going strong, and they report that cheese is moving apace.
View reportThe cheese markets stand well below the summer peaks but have made a surprisingly quick return to the lofty elevations from a month ago. Despite the impressive uphill sprint, the trade is clearly questioning the cheese market’s stamina.
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