The Latest: October - 2025
Government Shutdown Clouds Dairy Market Data
As the government shutdown stretches into its second week, the dairy industry continues to operate without access to key data. To this point, the main information gaps for the dairy sector include numbers for trade and dairy product output. However, if the shutdown persists, upcoming reports on milk production and inventories will also be missed, further obfuscating stakeholders’ understanding of market drivers.
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Exports will be an important outlet for a market that is heavy with product. There is plenty of milk, and cheese plants are running full throttle.
View reportSpot milk values in the Upper Midwest fell hard this week, making clear that milk is abundant. Steep discounts on spot milk incentivize cheese producers to squeeze in extra loads. Given these discounts and expansions in cheese processing capacity this year, we’ve been making massive volumes of cheese.
View reportThe nation is awash in milk. The dairy herd has not been this large since 1994. High feed costs may deter further expansion, but with that kind of cow power, the industry is sure to keep milk production well above prior-year levels for months to come. May output is likely to impress. While the rest of the dairy complex retreats, whey advances.
View reportSome dairy producers are partially shielded from higher feed expenses through a combination of inventories, contracts, and farming. Many have been battered by low Class IV values and widespread depooling, and are now being clobbered by immense feed bills. They are reeling.
View reportThe U.S. dairy industry has expanded cheese processing capacity noticeably, and it shows. The flush has accelerated and, according to USDA’s Dairy Market News, cheese makers are “busy.”
View reportThe bulls continued their leisurely stroll through the dairy pits this week and the milk markets moved higher.
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