
The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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Nearly all products gained ground at the CME spot market with the exception of Whey. The other spot dairy products moved decisively upward.
View reportWith milk production expected to stay strong, dairy product production will continue to be robust. This aggressive production threatens to overhang the market unless demand can demonstrate a meaningful and sustained expansion.
View reportCheese manufacturers report that demand has improved from both domestic and international sources. Even with improved demand, supply remains more than ample and inventories are growing.
View reportMilk is undeniably long and with the spring flush imminent in most parts of the country, supplies are expected to remain plentiful. Yet even as milk remains abundant, demand has also perked up, helping to keep markets in balance. Butter manufacturers report that domestic demand has been healthy while the spot whey market continued to reach new heights, setting another record this week.
View reportOver the past year, the dairy markets have exhibited extreme volatility, adjusting to drastic shifts in both supply and demand. Consumer behaviors are shifting back towards something that resembles pre-pandemic times.
View reportWith a sense of normalcy restored, and the spring flush rapidly approaching, milk is still plentiful and has resulted in copious dairy product production.
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