The Latest: February - 2026
Product Scarcity Driving the Milk Powder Market
Product scarcity seems to be driving the gains in the milk powder market as buyers seeking product are coming up empty-handed. According to USDA’s Dairy Products report, combined output of NDM and skim milk powder (SMP) was just 170.3 million pounds in December, down 6.2% compared to the same month last year. NDM prices have been climbing since January, but the trajectory accelerated meaningfully this week. After taking a brief respite on Monday, the spot price for NDM rose every day between Tuesday and Friday, delivering an 18¢ increase, and qualifying as the commodity’s strongest week since May 2007.
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The U.S. dairy herd is much smaller than once thought, and milk production barely grew at all in September. Early indications suggest milk output is once again below year-ago levels in Europe.
View reportUSDA’s Milk Production report, released Wednesday, suggested that national milk supplies are growing at a slower rate than many analysts previously believed. Lighter milk supplies have likely helped to keep upward pressure on the markets this week.
View reportDespite some moderation during Friday’s spot session, gains earlier in the week left prices higher than last Friday for both butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM), pushing Class IV milk values upward.
View reportHot weather weighed on U.S. milk yields and slowed milk powder output in August. As the impacts of the summer heat wave fade and bottlers settle into the school milk routine, there is more milk available for processing.
View reportThe bulls were put out to pasture this summer, grazing in paddocks far from LaSalle Street. But fall is here, and they are back home enjoying a high energy ration, pushing several markets to their highest price in months.
View reportSoaring temperatures in much of the country and unusually humid conditions in the Southwest added up to a lot of stress. National average milk yields fell short of year-ago levels, an exceptionally rare occurrence.
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