The Latest: October - 2026
The Fresh Cheese Squeeze Is Over
The wild ride continued in the CME spot Cheddar market. Blocks soared in the first three weeks of October as cheese buyers scrambled to source fresh Cheddar from plants without production issues. And USDA offered more clarity on those ongoing issues, reporting in Dairy Market News, “The ongoing focus on high protein, premium whey concentrates has led some cheese manufacturers to push the cheesemaking process further than usual. This is increasing liquid whey output, resulting in more off spec cheese production.” Nonetheless, it seems that the fresh cheese squeeze is over.
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U.S. inflation accelerated to 9.1% last month, reducing Americans’ purchasing power at the fastest rate since 1981. The dairy markets suffered too.
View reportPrices for dairy commodities moved lower both at home and abroad as the markets sort through supply and demand dynamics. Concerns about economic cooling, inflation, and the resulting impact on dairy demand seems to have been sufficient to push back on pricing.
View reportCME spot butter leapt 9.5ȼ to $3.01 per pound. That’s the highest spot butter price since 2015. The other spot products also climbed, however milk futures struggled.
View reportRed ink flowed on LaSalle Street this week as the trade reckoned with the fact that, although milk production continues to shrink, cheese abounds. Ongoing concerns about demand also pressured the markets.
View reportConcerns about demand have been simmering near the surface for several months. This week, rising interest rates and a plummeting stock market brought the anxiety up to a full boil.
View reportThe butter market illustrates the conundrum that besets much of the dairy complex. Stocks are relatively low and production is falling seasonally. Milk and butter output are not rising anywhere that matters. U.S. butter is much cheaper than foreign product, so trade is further eroding supplies.
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