The Latest: October - 2026
Tidal Wave of Milk
The dairy markets are awash in a tidal wave of milk. USDA’s latest Milk Production report showed that August milk output was notably higher than previously thought, and the agency pegged September milk production at 19.4 billion pounds, up 2.6% year over year, far higher than LaSalle Street expected. The recent ups and downs in the dairy markets did not diminish dairy producers’ appetite for growth. They added 26,000 cows last month, lifting the dairy herd to 9.74 million head.
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Prices for dairy commodities moved lower both at home and abroad as the markets sort through supply and demand dynamics. Concerns about economic cooling, inflation, and the resulting impact on dairy demand seems to have been sufficient to push back on pricing.
View reportCME spot butter leapt 9.5ȼ to $3.01 per pound. That’s the highest spot butter price since 2015. The other spot products also climbed, however milk futures struggled.
View reportRed ink flowed on LaSalle Street this week as the trade reckoned with the fact that, although milk production continues to shrink, cheese abounds. Ongoing concerns about demand also pressured the markets.
View reportConcerns about demand have been simmering near the surface for several months. This week, rising interest rates and a plummeting stock market brought the anxiety up to a full boil.
View reportThe butter market illustrates the conundrum that besets much of the dairy complex. Stocks are relatively low and production is falling seasonally. Milk and butter output are not rising anywhere that matters. U.S. butter is much cheaper than foreign product, so trade is further eroding supplies.
View reportIn Europe the high costs of physical expansions, additional labor, replacement heifers, and feed costs, when coupled with market uncertainty, creates a risk level that prevents widespread expansion. The same factors are hampering milk output on this side of the Atlantic as well.
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