The Latest: September - 2026
Relentless Growth in Milk Output
Relentless growth in milk output and sky-high components kept dairy manufacturers busy in July. Dairy processors made 2.1% more cheese and 5.5% more butter than in July 2025. Domestic demand is not keeping pace with this growth, and neither are exports. Despite another month of record-smashing cheese shipments, year-over-year growth in January through July cheese exports was 19.5 million pounds smaller than the increase in cheese output.
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Barrels eligible for delivery to Chicago are in short supply. Fresh Cheddar may be tight, but there is plenty of cheese in storage. Cheese production may fall short of potential, but output will still be ample.
View reportU.S. milk output grew decisively last month in comparison to the very low production reported in August 2021. It’s likely that today’s milk-cow herd is already slightly larger than it was in September 2021. Milk production climbed in every region of the country except the Great Lakes states.
View reportOn Tuesday CME spot butter jumped 7ȼ to $3.24 per pound, a lofty price for a market that was $1.79 a year ago. After a brief stay at the peak, butter journeyed back downhill, but not before it logged the four highest trading sessions in history.
View reportThe butter market leapt to an all-time high Wednesday and just kept climbing, but lofty values didn’t scare away buyers. The last time that butter prices were even close to this high, the selloff was swift.
View reportThe bulls remain in charge in the butter pit. Grocers are anxious about stocking their shelves with enough product to last through the holiday baking season, and USDA’s recent reports have not calmed their fears.
View reportButter production is always scant in the summer, but it was especially so this year. There were just 314.4 million pounds of butter in cold storage at the end of July, 5.4% less than a year ago and the lowest mid-summer total since 2017.
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