Market Reports

U.S. milk output is now growing at a historically normal rate, but there are many barriers to more rapid expansion, including onerous feed costs and self-imposed supply management restrictions.

Despite challenging weather and margin complications, each of the major dairy states saw volumes rise. Production growth was driven by both stronger yields and a modestly larger herd.

Some of these dynamics were foreshadowed by declines at last week’s Global Dairy Trade auction. Every product lost ground at the auction, though the biggest declines were seen by butter, buttermilk powder, and whole milk powder.

Grocers are still worried about empty shelves and willing to pay whatever it takes to get their hands on more butter. But in just a few weeks they will be done stocking up for the holiday baking season, and prices are expected to plummet.

Barrels eligible for delivery to Chicago are in short supply. Fresh Cheddar may be tight, but there is plenty of cheese in storage. Cheese production may fall short of potential, but output will still be ample.

U.S. milk output grew decisively last month in comparison to the very low production reported in August 2021. It’s likely that today’s milk-cow herd is already slightly larger than it was in September 2021. Milk production climbed in every region of the country except the Great Lakes states.