The Latest: September - 2025
No Bulls to Be Found on LaSalle Street
There were no bulls to be found on LaSalle Street this week. The bears roamed freely, showing no fear of an overcorrection even as parts of the dairy complex scored multi-year lows. Red ink poured into the cheese and milk powder trade and deluged the butter market. CME spot butter plummeted to $1.86 per pound, down 16.25ȼ in just five trading sessions. Spot butter is down more than 40% from the mid-summer high, languishing at its lowest level since October 2021, nearly four years ago. The weakness carried across the futures board, with May through October 2026 contracts dropping 10ȼ or more on Friday.
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Despite signs of continued contraction, the dairy markets just keep dropping and CME spot Cheddar blocks led the retreat. Cheddar output has fallen below year-ago volumes since October and overall cheese production was lower than prior-year output in December and January.
View reportIndecision continued to pervade the dairy markets this week as the price of most products waffled close to recent levels. While the market tone is not one of desperation, both supply and demand leave something to be desired with the two market forces going head-to-head to see which will exert more influence on prices.
View reportLos mercados lácteos están buscando un fondo. Los futuros de Clase III de abril a julio marcaron mínimos en la vida del contrato esta semana. Estos son precios que seguirán impulsando la contracción en la industria, reduciendo la producción de leche y la producción de productos lácteos. De hecho, a pesar de las grandes inversiones en la capacidad de producción de queso en Estados Unidos, la producción de queso cayó un 1.2% por debajo de los volúmenes del año anterior en enero. La producción de cheddar, un factor importante para el precio en Chicago, cayó un 7.9% interanual en enero. Y el queso competitivo en precio de Estados Unidos.
View reportThe dairy markets are feeling around for a bottom. April through July Class III futures notched life-of-contract lows this week. But the bulls are not wallowing in despair.
View reportIt was a rough week on LaSalle Street. The trade had hoped that lower milk output and a smaller dairy herd would propel the markets upward. And they did, for a time.
View reportThe U.S. dairy industry continues to shrink. In the latest Milk Production report, USDA trimmed its estimates of 2023 milk production, and it cut its assessment of the milk cow herd for every month last year. According to the latest figures, the milk-cow herd contracted nearly 50,000 head in 2023 and declined another 23,000 head from December to January.
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