The Latest: September - 2025
No Bulls to Be Found on LaSalle Street
There were no bulls to be found on LaSalle Street this week. The bears roamed freely, showing no fear of an overcorrection even as parts of the dairy complex scored multi-year lows. Red ink poured into the cheese and milk powder trade and deluged the butter market. CME spot butter plummeted to $1.86 per pound, down 16.25ȼ in just five trading sessions. Spot butter is down more than 40% from the mid-summer high, languishing at its lowest level since October 2021, nearly four years ago. The weakness carried across the futures board, with May through October 2026 contracts dropping 10ȼ or more on Friday.
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Folks from across the dairy industry gathered this week in Chicago for the annual meeting of the American Dairy Products Institute. This event provides a setting for traders and other stakeholders to chew over market information and revise expectations for the months ahead. While every commodity gained ground at the CME this week, it remains clear that individual products each are confronting their own set of challenges, and that the markets remain shrouded in uncertainty from both supply and demand.
View reportThe dairy markets swung wildly back and forth this week as they digested a slew of data and headlines. Monday’s Milk Production report showed that milk output declined for a ninth straight month and while milk output was already slipping in the Southwest before avian influenza began to impact dairy herds there this spring, it seems likely that the illness exacerbated the decline.
View reportClass III futures came roaring back this week, led by a sizable rally in the cheese markets. USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that domestic cheese demand is perking up. Grocery shoppers have embraced the advent of grilling season with shopping carts full of ground beef and all the fixings for cheeseburgers.
View reportThe dairy markets got off to a strong start this week, led by a historic move in butter. CME spot butter traded thrice at $2.97 per pound on Monday, marking the highest spring butter price on record.
View reportU.S. dairy exports have struggled for the past year as weak global demand and uncompetitive prices caused exports to trail prior year levels for a full year. But February data suggests that the tides may be changing.
View reportOn Monday, the USDA announced that it had identified the mystery disease affecting dairy cattle in Kansas and Texas as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). According to the agency, the virus has likely been spread by wild birds that had contact with affected farms. While any situation that negatively impacts herd health is a concern, it is encouraging to know that the virus is not transmitted between cattle and there is currently no evidence that the disease will spread to humans.
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