The Latest: January - 2026
Have the Bulls Returned
But even though the specter of excess global milk supplies has by now become familiar, the bears seem to have taken a breather this week. For the second event in a row, the Global Dairy Trade index moved up, rising 1.5% on the back of stronger prices for fats and powders. Similarly, the CME spot market did an about face with values rising across nearly every product. While we remain a far cry from declaring that the bulls have returned, these increases are nevertheless an indication that the market may be finding some support at prevailing levels.
View Report
Tighter milk supplies and lower milk solids output have stiffened competition among dairy processors. While there are no obvious winners, there is a clear loser.
View reportThe bears went into hibernation a little early this year, and the bulls enjoyed raucous celebrations on LaSalle Street. Milk and dairy product futures soared to life-of-contract highs amid continued barriers to growth.
View reportU.S. milk output has trailed prior-year volumes for 13 straight months. In Wednesday’s Milk Production report, USDA slashed its initial estimate of June milk output. The agency now reports a 1.7% drop in milk production during the tail end of the flush.
View reportLike Katie Ledecky in a Paris pool, the dairy spot markets hit one milestone after another. CME spot Cheddar barrels gave a standout performance, blocks tied for their highest mark since January 2023, butter leapt to its loftiest value since last October, and spot nonfat dry milk (NDM) cleared the bar for the first time in 18 months.
View reportHot temperatures continue to challenge output in some areas, but the suffocating heat and humidity seen in recent weeks has largely subsided. Even so, spot milk remains tight, and manufacturers are paying a premium to get their hands on extra loads.
View reportIn its weekly summary of the milk and dairy product markets, USDA’s Dairy Market News specifically mentioned tight milk or seasonally lighter milk production in each of its sections covering fluid milk, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), whey, dry whole milk, casein, dry buttermilk, and lactose.
View report