The Latest: June - 2025
Milk Flows Again as Herds Grow
The heifer shortage and avian influenza reined in U.S. milk output in 2024, fostering lofty milk and dairy product prices in the second half of last year. But after nearly two years of low cull rates and sheer grit, the parlors are full, and so are the milk tanks. In the first 24 weeks of 2025, dairy cow slaughter was 7.7% behind the 2024 pace and 15.6% slower than historic average cull rates. Dairy producers added 122,000 cows over the past 11 months. From coast to coast, but especially in the center of the country, producers are looking to expand their facilities and add significantly more cows over the next 18 months.
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After the fireworks of last week, the cheese markets have spent the past few days coming back to earth. Barrels distanced themselves from the all-time high notched on Wednesday of last week, giving up 29.25¢ since last Friday to end the week at $2.2975/lb. Blocks also moved downward, albeit...
View reportU.S. milk output fell short of year-ago volumes for the 14th straight month in August. The deficit was narrow; production was just 0.1% lower than August 2023. Given sizable improvements in milk components, butterfat and protein output were surely higher than last year, and it’s possible that milk solids output also topped August 2023 volumes. But August 2023 set a very low bar, and, at least on a fluid basis, U.S. milk output failed to clear it.
View reportThe dairy markets moved higher again as the trade grappled with structural barriers to expansion throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the United States, limits to growth are well known.
View reportTighter milk supplies and lower milk solids output have stiffened competition among dairy processors. While there are no obvious winners, there is a clear loser.
View reportThe bears went into hibernation a little early this year, and the bulls enjoyed raucous celebrations on LaSalle Street. Milk and dairy product futures soared to life-of-contract highs amid continued barriers to growth.
View reportU.S. milk output has trailed prior-year volumes for 13 straight months. In Wednesday’s Milk Production report, USDA slashed its initial estimate of June milk output. The agency now reports a 1.7% drop in milk production during the tail end of the flush.
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